New Zealand Gold Prospecting & Metal Detecting Forums Archive

i hope not! there's enough diggers out there now.

before the price went mental i had people asking me why i bother when they saw me digging.

now i get mobbed.

even more remote spots that you dig a test hole in, go back next day or week and the place has been hit as they believe if i hole is dug there has to be a hoard of gold lying close by.

Everyone listens to Goldman and does what they say, while Goldman itself is doing the opposite. They will be buying up gold right now like there's no tomorrow. They will have put out that press release hoping that it'll depress the gold price even further while they vacuum it up.

Well I guess I did walk into that one as there has been times I have also successfully counter traded the advice of major corporations.

However, Goldman are not the only ones reducing their positions. A fella called George Soros has been greatly reducing his positions in the worlds largest Gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, over the last few months also.

http://business.financia...-dive-to-five-month-low/
http://www.reuters.com/a...us-idUSL4N0BR4Z720130227

We could also look at the raw figures and see that there has been a 11% decline over the last 12 months which may suggest that the forecast isn't so rosy for the gold industry at the moment. However as Lammerlaw can probably recall, it is not quite as bad as 1975 when there was a 27% decrease in spot gold price from $185 NZ an ounce to $135.

Some will probably counter this all by saying I'm being near sighted and need to look at the bigger picture. Has there not been a 400% increase in the price of gold over the last decade? And I would politely say you are right,

But what I would like to point out is that the driving factors behind that 10-12 years of exuberant growth are no longer present. In particular the 'fear' from the GFC that had been omnipresent since 2008 and euro crisis has now subsided and whilst there a still ripples now and then, the global financial situation has calmed down considerably and people are returning to investments such as stocks. Example being the approx 13% increase of the NZX 50 over the last 6 months, which is a bit better then gold has been doing in the same timeframe.

Some may be anticipating WWIII breaking out with Iran or North Korea of which would inadvertently increase the price of oil along with gold. Hey, its not going to happen. Canada, USA and Britain wouldn't be reducing their defense spending by a minimum of 13% p/a if they seriously thought a major conflict was on the horizon.

I'm not trying to be the fun police but quite often I hear from other people in the gold industry and nearly everyone is not only talking of how high gold is going to go but they are also investing their money into enterprise's from 'calculations' of revenue from overinflated gold price projections.

Some, maybe a lot may completely disagree with what I have said. But hopefully others that are looking at doing some semi commercial mining will stop and do a wider scenario appreciation of the possible future of the gold price and make an analytical decision instead of an emotional decision entering such a venture.

FYI - We sold our seasons takings a few weeks ago because of the above concerns and have held a 'short' ETF position for a while now.

The views of others are really interesting and all have value and merit, well considered and well put - they clearly indicate though that we each look at things from different angles.

I have watched gold since 1970 and the only fact is that it tends like the snail climbing out of a well - climb above its last hight hen slips back - but onward - further onward - there are no indications, historical or otherwise to indicate that it will change this pattern and we simply do NOT know what history will do tomorrow so that an unexpected incident which sparks a global crisis could cause a totally unexpected and unpredicted fluctuation in the price of gold.

Some countries are buying gold hand over fist - China for exampe.
Have the Feds really taken 7/8ths of the Fort Knox gold - if so why?
If they have then rest assured the Feds WILL try and most likely succeed in reintroducing the gold standard - and then watch out - it might seem far fetched but back when I used topay $20 for all the petrol for a fortnights gold mining holiday at Macetown from Dunedin including a couple of days in Skippers ($4.80 to completely fill the tank of my Landrover) the concept of the same holiday in forty years time costing $400 seemed to be total absurdity!

My only advice based on a 'dont really know but I do believe' consideration is try your hardest to keep your gold and try your hardest to get more - firstly it is fun being out there and secondly it is just another egg in the basket BUT it just might turn out to be 'the' golden egg.

Rumours come and rumours go - financial analysts often hit the nail on the head like my cousin who phoned me to ask me to convert every cent I had into American dollars when the NZ dollar was 70c US - I did not do it and lost many many thousands as the NZ went down to 50c as he told me it would.
Financial anylists also get it wrong - one of the countries top guys approached me last November asking me to sell him gold - he would buy every bit I was prepared to sell and pay me cash and as an added incentive he was prepared to pay spot price - when I didnt do so he told me that I was not to sell to anyone else then as it was due to go up on January the first this year when the gold standard was going to be introduced then - well it didnt happen as we all know - so the experts also get it wrong.

The only ones Iknow of for sure who will know wioll be the Feds themselves - with or without global crisis ono ne hand or stability on the other - they know - it is all manipulated to greater or lesser degree.